Europe Under Pressure: Migration, Energy, and Political Consequences — Alona Lebedieva
“Migration pressure has once again become one of the most sensitive issues for European governments. The new Pact on Migration and Asylum was supposed to put an end to internal disputes but, like most compromises within the EU, it has only opened a new front of confrontation. Some states appeal to humanitarianism and shared responsibility, while others focus on security and control. Every government is trying to balance between European solidarity and fear of its own electorate,” notes Alona Lebedieva, owner of the Ukrainian multi-profile industrial and investment group of companies Aurum Group.
In her view, the energy front has become one of the most serious tests for Europe in recent decades — and at the same time, a story of successful adaptation. After Russia’s gas blackmail, the EU completely rebuilt its supply system in just two years.
“If in Q2 2021 the share of Russian oil and petroleum products in total imports amounted to 29%, by mid-2025 it was only 2%. Imports of Russian pipeline gas dropped from 48% to 12%, and liquefied natural gas — from 22% to 14%. By 2028, the EU plans to completely abandon Russian energy carriers.”
At the same time, large-scale programs for energy saving and import diversification have been introduced — from Norway to the United States. Today, the problem lies not in the cost of “green” energy (which is sometimes even supplied to the grid for free due to surplus) but in its instability, which depends on weather conditions. Europe has successfully overcome the energy crisis but now risks falling into a new one — dependence on American energy resources. Trade agreements between the EU and the U.S. already envisage purchases worth hundreds of billions of dollars, creating a new asymmetry in the market.
“For Ukraine, this context opens not only challenges but also opportunities. We possess significant uranium reserves — a key fuel element for nuclear power plants, which is becoming a crucial energy resource for Europe’s stable future. In the long term, this could become a strategic area of cooperation — from extraction to joint production and technology,” emphasizes Alona Lebedieva.
Against this background, populist and far-right forces are strengthening. They exploit public fatigue, fear of “others,” and distrust toward traditional politicians. The EU, once built on the idea of openness, is now forced to erect barriers — both external and internal. New political balances are being shaped not in Brussels but in the voting booths of Italy, Germany, France, and Central European countries.
This creates a new reality: when the “European consensus” no longer guarantees stability, and every crisis becomes a litmus test of the effectiveness of the European model.
“Therefore, it is crucial for Ukraine to understand that we are dealing with a Europe in transformation. The Union, once a symbol of stability, is now undergoing a political restructuring — and this means that support for our integration path requires new arguments: not emotional, but strategic ones,” says Lebedieva.
We must offer not only “a European future for Ukraine” but also “a Ukrainian benefit for Europe” — in the spheres of security, energy, food, logistics, and technology.
“It brings to mind the ‘challenge–response’ concept formulated by the eminent English historian Arnold Toynbee in his book A Study of History. It suggests that in international political and economic competition, those who can provide a worthy response to a challenge ultimately prevail. According to Toynbee, Austria once transformed from a small political entity into a powerful empire precisely because it responded effectively to the pressure of the Ottoman Empire,” says Alona Lebedieva.
When the response is weaker than the challenge, states, companies, and even entire civilizations lose their strength and influence. This is what happened, for example, with the former leader of the global communications market, Nokia, which failed to meet the challenge of the new technological era of smartphones
Today, Europe stands before its own historical challenge. The nature of its response will determine not only the future of the Union but also our path toward it. Ukraine has the chance to become not a passive observer, but an active participant in that response.
Alona Lebedieva
Aurum Group
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